U.S. Senate · Updated Oct 9
Kentucky Senate
Garland Andy Barr win chance
99%
Typical margin: Barr by 16.5
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Garland Andy Barr
Raised $10.0M · $2.3M cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Amy McGrath
Raised $2.4M · $3K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.6 points to Garland Andy Barr. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $9.7M in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Oct 1Inside Elections: Solid RepublicanInside Elections
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid RCook Political Report
- Jun 30Amy McGrath had raised $2.4MFEC filing
- Jun 30Garland Andy Barr had raised $10.0MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+28.8 and R+4.3.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›