U.S. Senate · Updated Oct 9
Massachusetts Senate
Edward Markey win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Markey by 25
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Edward Markey
Raised $8.1M · $1.3M cash on hand · through Aug 12, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
John Deaton
Raised $1.6M · $712K cash on hand · through Aug 12, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.7 points to Edward Markey. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $555K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Oct 1Inside Elections: Solid DemocratInside Elections
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid DCook Political Report
- Aug 12John Deaton had raised $1.6MFEC filing
- Aug 12Edward Markey had raised $8.1MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between D+13.3 and D+36.7.
The polling average we use has it at D+24.5.
Our method ›