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2nd Opinion
Elections

U.S. Senate · Updated Oct 9

Montana Senate

Kurt Alme win chance

99%

Typical margin: Alme by 16

Republican

Alani Ines Bankhead 1%Kurt Alme 99%

Who's running

Seth BodnarIndependent
Kurt AlmeRepublican
Alani Ines BankheadDemocrat

The numbers behind it

Cook Political ReportAs of Sep 23, 2026Solid R
Inside ElectionsAs of Oct 1, 2026Solid Republican
Money raisedFEC, through Jun 30, 2026Bodnar $3.2MAlme $2.0MBankhead $59K
Campaign money

Seth Bodnar

Raised $3.2M · $978K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗

Kurt Alme

Raised $2.0M · $1.5M cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗

Alani Ines Bankhead

Raised $59K · $21K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗

Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.5 points to Kurt Alme. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.

Other filers in this race raised $251K in total.

Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.

How the numbers moved
  1. Oct 1Inside Elections: Solid RepublicanInside Elections
  2. Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid RCook Political Report
  3. Jun 30Alani Ines Bankhead had raised $59KFEC filing
  4. Jun 30Kurt Alme had raised $2.0MFEC filing
  5. Jun 30Seth Bodnar had raised $3.2MFEC filing
How we got this number

We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.

90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+28.4 and R+4.0.

The polling average we use has it at R+15.7.

Our method ›