U.S. Senate · Updated Oct 9
North Carolina Senate
Roy Cooper win chance
94%
Typical margin: Cooper by 9
Democrat
Who's running
What would change it
Move today's polling average and watch our number move with it.
Today: Cooper +9.0 in the pollsCooper's chance with the polls as they are
94%
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Roy Cooper
Raised $35.0M · $20.7M cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Michael Whatley
Raised $11.3M · $3.5M cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.5 points to Roy Cooper. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
Who lives in North Carolina
Median age39.4
Bachelor's degree or higher (25+)37.1%
Lives in urban areas66.7%
White, non-Hispanic59.0%
Hispanic12.0%
Black19.5%
Asian3.6%
Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2024; urban share from the 2020 Census. Who lives here, not who votes for whom.
How the numbers moved
- Oct 1Inside Elections: Lean D (flip)Inside Elections
- Sep 30Roy Cooper +9.0 in the polling averageRCP average, Sep 30 2026
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Lean D (flip)Cook Political Report
- Sep 22Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean D (flip)Sabato's Crystal Ball
- Jun 30Michael Whatley had raised $11.3MFEC filing
- Jun 30Roy Cooper had raised $35.0MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+0.4 and D+18.1.
Our method ›