U.S. Senate · Updated Oct 9
New Mexico Senate
Ben Ray Lujan win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Lujan by 27.5
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Ben Ray Lujan
Raised $8.3M · $4.4M cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Larry E Marker
Raised $34K · $12K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.5 points to Ben Ray Lujan. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Oct 1Inside Elections: Solid DemocratInside Elections
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid DCook Political Report
- Jun 30Larry E Marker had raised $34KFEC filing
- Jun 30Ben Ray Lujan had raised $8.3MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between D+15.5 and D+39.9.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›