U.S. Senate · Updated Oct 9
Oklahoma Senate
Kevin Hern win chance
99%
Typical margin: Hern by 17
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Kevin Hern
Raised $10.0M · $2.5M cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Jim Priest
Raised $378K · $56K cash on hand · through Aug 5, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.4 points to Kevin Hern. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $212K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Oct 1Inside Elections: Solid RepublicanInside Elections
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid RCook Political Report
- Aug 5Jim Priest had raised $378KFEC filing
- Jun 30Kevin Hern had raised $10.0MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+29.4 and R+4.9.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›