U.S. Senate · Updated Oct 9
Oregon Senate
Jeffrey Alan Merkley win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Merkley by 27.5
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Jeffrey Alan Merkley
Raised $7.9M · $6.8M cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
David Brock Smith
Raised $121K · $29K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.5 points to Jeffrey Alan Merkley. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $11K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Oct 1Inside Elections: Solid DemocratInside Elections
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid DCook Political Report
- Jun 30David Brock Smith had raised $121KFEC filing
- Jun 30Jeffrey Alan Merkley had raised $7.9MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between D+15.5 and D+39.9.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›