U.S. Senate · Updated Oct 9
Rhode Island Senate
John F. Reed win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Reed by 27.5
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
John F. Reed
Raised $4.5M · $3.1M cash on hand · through Aug 20, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Raymond Tyler McKay
Raised $180K · $8K cash on hand · through Aug 20, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.4 points to John F. Reed. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $27K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Oct 1Inside Elections: Solid DemocratInside Elections
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid DCook Political Report
- Aug 20Raymond Tyler McKay had raised $180KFEC filing
- Aug 20John F. Reed had raised $4.5MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between D+15.4 and D+39.8.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›