U.S. Senate · Updated Oct 9
Tennessee Senate
Bill Hagerty win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Hagerty by 19.5
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Bill Hagerty
Raised $16.0M · $5.2M cash on hand · through Jul 17, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Maria A Brewer
Raised $9K · $5K cash on hand · through Jul 17, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.5 points to Bill Hagerty. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $6K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Oct 1Inside Elections: Solid RepublicanInside Elections
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid RCook Political Report
- Jul 17Maria A Brewer had raised $9KFEC filing
- Jul 17Bill Hagerty had raised $16.0MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+31.5 and R+7.1.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›