U.S. Senate · Updated Oct 9
Virginia Senate
Mark Robert Warner win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Warner by 27.5
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Mark Robert Warner
Raised $25.2M · $16.1M cash on hand · through Jul 15, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Bert K Mizusawa
Raised $419K · $90K cash on hand · through Jul 15, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.5 points to Mark Robert Warner. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $211K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Oct 1Inside Elections: Solid DemocratInside Elections
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid DCook Political Report
- Jul 15Bert K Mizusawa had raised $419KFEC filing
- Jul 15Mark Robert Warner had raised $25.2MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between D+15.5 and D+39.9.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›