U.S. Senate · Updated Oct 9
Wyoming Senate
Harriet Hageman win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Hageman by 17.5
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Harriet Hageman
Raised $2.4M · $915K cash on hand · through Jul 29, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
James Willard Byrd
Raised $23K · $356.16 cash on hand · through Jul 29, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.5 points to Harriet Hageman. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $289K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Oct 1Inside Elections: Solid RepublicanInside Elections
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid RCook Political Report
- Jul 29James Willard Byrd had raised $23KFEC filing
- Jul 29Harriet Hageman had raised $2.4MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+29.5 and R+5.1.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›